By Nwachukwu Egbunike
Today, November 16, 2013 marks another historical jump in the democratic journey in Anambra State. Today Anambra citizens are currently voting to elect their governor for the next four years. As it were, #Anambra2013 is significant for many reasons: there has been a realignment in the political stratosphere in the country. With the emerging dance of nPDP from the PDP, to the formation of APC, etc. It is therefore no surprise that today’s election is getting this much attention. Asides the peculiarity of Anambra politics, it is obvious that #Anambra2013 Election is a miniature testing of the 2015 General Elections in Nigeria.
However, I wish to make some predictions on the outcome of the today’s elections – #Anambra2013. This is entirely my opinion – which means that they are not articles of faith and therefore are prone to be contradicted. Nonetheless, based on ground reports and the history of Anambra politics, I dare to state that the outcome of this elections might end with the following results:
1st: Willie Obiano (APGA)
2nd: Tony Nwoye (PDP)
3rd: Chris Ngige (APC)
My predictions are based on the following:
1. APGA has a lot of political capital in it’s favour. The power of incumbency, the “material immortality” of Dim Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, the impressive performance of outgoing Peter Obi. Also Willie Obiano candidacy has played out well, “Going North!” In addition, Obiano has credibility on his side. As outlandish as it sounds, but APGA’s narrative has popular validity – the ‘deportation’ occurrence; the Ofala gaffe – saw APC playing into APGA’s hand.
2. Frankly for a while, I thought that the PDP was not interested in this elections. From the ping-pong in the courts to the calibre of their candidate. However, PDP has once again demonstrated it’s ability to turn the tide: a fact of their strong and impressive grass-root mobilisation. Despite having barely a week to campaign, Tony Nwoye’s PDP has made impressive in-roads in the field. They have successfully changed the equation in Anambra North, which hitherto was almost excursively APGA’s. Nonetheless, a Tony Nwoye as governor would have been possible some years back but certainly not in 2013.
3. If elections were held on social media, Chris Ngige would have clinched a land slide victory. As at the time of publishing this post, Ngige is the only candidate in #Anambra2013 elections, that is trending on Twitter. That tells you a lot about his party, APC. However, Ngige cannot win this election: his only selling point was that he was once Governor and did quite a lot during his term. But that does not over-ride the history behind his emergence. Besides, it is unfortunately bitter but true, Chris Ngige would have wrestled APGA to a standstill had he been in another party.
Anyway these are my thoughts. It is imperative to state that I owe no allegiance to any party or any of the contestants. And I may be proved wrong at that end of day. Nonetheless, if anyone disagrees with the above, the blogosphere is free, kindly write your own!